Markets · Paper → Live · Diary
Paper first. Live later. Maybe.
A live diary of a paper test. We keep only what survives fees and written rules. Nothing here is a live trade, and nothing here is advice.
Primero en papel. Luego, quizá, en real. Nada de esto es una operación real.
Paper week · closed Fri 9 Oct 2026, 23:59 London
ScrollThe line · La frase
The problem with crypto it's not like real markets. The movement of the the candle can happen from the wind itself :)
Wind moves candles. Fees move accounts. We measure both before we call anything a plan.
So this page is a diary, not a scoreboard. It says what is being tested, under which rules, and what happens when the week ends.
Velas al viento · Candles in the wind
The wind does
the moving.
We do the writing down. It is less exciting, and it costs less.
The method · El método
Test. Kill. Keep.
- 01
Paper only, first.
Virtual money, public data. No live orders on this book until the rules say so.
- 02
Fees are the gate.
Every idea is charged a full round trip of fees. If the edge is smaller than one round trip, it is dead.
- 03
Latency is honest.
We are a long way from the exchange, on an ordinary connection. We do not pretend otherwise, so anything that needs speed is out.
- 04
Friday decided.
Paper week closed Fri 9 Oct 2026, 23:59 Europe/London. The written scorecard is in. Not a vibe.
This week · Paper week
Three lanes. Tested to Friday.
Virtual money. Public data. Notes on weekdays. Nothing here is a live trade.
- 01
Slow trend
BTC and ETH, long or flat, Donchian 55/20, entering at the next open. No shorts.
- 02
Wide grid
BTC only, 2.5% spacing. Sparse on purpose, because tight grids die to fees.
- 03
Funding log
BTC funding, observed only. No position. Sometimes the job is just to watch.
Stop rule: Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 23:59 Europe/London
Scorecard · El resultado
What survived.
What didn’t.
-
SURVIVED
Slow trend (200-day)
Hold bitcoin while its price is clearly above its 200-day average, and step aside into cash when it's clearly below. A small buffer stops it flip-flopping. It trades only a couple of times a year, so fees and tax barely touch it. It's the one lane we're preparing to take further.
-
KILLED
Breakout trend (buy new highs, sell new lows)
It looked fine on older data. Since 2022 it has done worse than simply holding bitcoin, whatever the costs. A good story isn't the same as a good rule.
-
SHELVED
Wide grid (buy dips, sell bounces at fixed steps)
Wide spacing beats tight spacing, but the edge is thin. It can sit through deep drops while holding coins, and it creates hundreds of small taxable sales. It isn't worth the risk and the paperwork.
-
WATCH ONLY
Funding log
We observed this one and didn't trade it. The yields people advertise rarely survive fees and real payouts. We keep recording it and don't act on it.
One week of paper trading shows what the market did, not whether a rule works. We judge rules over years of data, after fees and after tax, and keep only what still stands.
Survivors (candidates) · Lo que aguanta
Slow edges.
Wide books.
Locked premiums.
Kept means “worth paper”. Not a promise. Not a call.
- 01
Multi-day BTC/ETH trend
Low turnover. A way to reshape risk against buy-and-hold, not a miracle curve.
- 02
Wide, sparse grids
Few rungs, wide spacing. Tight grids die to fees.
- 03
Patient realised funding
On liquid names, and only when it is still positive after fees. Not spike theatre.
- 04
Quarterly futures basis
Only when the locked premium beats the fee hurdle. Scanner first.
- 05
Overlays, never signals
Regime and trend-strength filters on the slow book. Never a standalone “signal”.
Graveyard · El cementerio
Clever on YouTube.
Dead after fees.
Killed means: do not promote. Video material, not a book.
- 01
Same-day “wave” trading
Daily in-and-out trading and sub-minute mean reversion.
- 02
Scalping from home
Too slow, and the fees are the same whichever way you click.
- 03
Tight grids · martingale
Dense grids and uncapped doubling-down. Both end the same way.
- 04
Cross-exchange “arbitrage”
Gone after fees. And a dollar is not always a dollar-shaped token.
- 05
Alt funding · RSI · Fear & Greed
Extreme altcoin funding harvests, RSI-first packs, mood-index timing.
- 06
Triangular · footprint · AI scalp
Triangular arb, order-flow fades, AI-gated chart scalps.
- 07
“AI crypto arb bot” tutorials
A fake-edge stack, at best. A scam, more often.
Next · Solo si se gana
One lane. Maybe.
Not automatic.
After the scorecard, at most one surviving lane may move to small live money. Paper week does not flip to live by itself. Valentas decides, with the scorecard in hand.
Nothing is live today. The sea, as you can see, is not bothered.
Later · Video angles
Show the myth.
Show the fee.
The same claims get sold loudly: funding screenshots, AI arbitrage bots, RSI bottoms, order-flow magic. We stack them against fee-honest tests. Education, not a tip service. Some of it will become the Market lessons series on the channel.
Sources we read (cited, not endorsed):
Extreme funding died in sample · DEV.to
Disclaimer · Aviso
Not advice.
Paper is not live.
Paper results are not live results. Past tests do not guarantee future returns.
Papel no es real.
Education only.
Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Your money remains your problem.
Solo educación.
Next · Siguiente
Read. Then think.
The scorecard is in. Questions about the method are welcome; requests for tips are not answered.
- The method · Test. Kill. Keep.
- This week · Three lanes
- Scorecard · What stood
- What we kept · Candidates
- What we killed · The graveyard
